I happen to be on vacation, and I don’t quite have time to do the necessary research to make picks this week. So I am taking the lazy way out, I am going to give you the tools to make them yourself. Lets get started.
The first place I like to look for golf picks is Vegas. Take a look at OddsChecker, or sites like it. It will give you an idea of who the experts think will perform any given week. The bookies are right more often and not, and we can use their knowledge to our advantage by finding price discrepancies. As the week before a tournament goes on the odds will change, but the price on Draftkings will not. This is especially effective in finding value dart throws. Look for guys whose odds to win increase throughout the week, as their price in daily golf will still reflect their opening odds. Sometimes these guys will strike out, but over the long term Vegas knows more than we do, and we should take advantage of that.
Know Your Course
Vegas is not the only thing to pay attention to. To be successful in daily golf you need to research the course. Knowing the layout of the course is absolutely vital to success. The more you know about the course, the more you know about what stats will correlate with success. Playing Dustin Johnson every week isn’t a horrible investment, but looking at stats will give you an idea of what courses he will lap the field on, and which courses he will need to be perfect on. For example, this week the Valspar Championship is being played at the Copperhead Course on Innisbrook Resort. Copperhead is not overly long, and has many tee shots with trouble lining the short grass on both sides. With that in mind driving accuracy is more important than the long ball this week. Every course is different, and knowing your course inside and out will give you a better idea of what stats, and more importantly, which players will help make you profitable.
Every Week Stats
Some stats are more useful than others, and some are worth looking at every week. Two that I like to use are strokes gained: putting, and strokes gained: tee to green. Strokes gained putting is much more indicative of good putting than just looking at total putts. It is sort of hard to explain in words, so this video explains both.
Lastly, it’s important to keep tabs on how guys have been playing recently. The most important thing in daily golf is to draft golfers that make the cut. If you draft a squad that all make it to the weekend rounds you will usually find yourself in the money. Look at a player’s last five or six events and look at finish trends and cut trends. Don’t always be scared off by one missed cut that was preceded by several good events. Do be scared of a guy who hasn’t made a cut in five weeks. Also pay attention a golfer’s past history at a given course, even if it doesn’t seem to fit their skill set well. All the stats in the world don’t make up for consistent low scorecards.
The eternal equalizer in golf is the weather, and you should always take it in to consideration when making your picks. Take a look at the weather for round one, if looks like the morning tee times are going to be hammered by 25 mph winds but it calms down in the afternoon, get your shares out of the morning groups. Its pretty amazing what just a couple hours difference in tee time can do to average scores, you need to be on the right side of that difference.
There you have it. That is the framework for how I make my picks every week. Feel free to take advantage of these little tidbits, or hit us up on Twitter if you have any questions. Happy hunting!